We're going to take a look into future when we deal with implied odds, kind of getting to the "next poker level". In this concept you have already decided what your action will be during next betting round, and you already know how your opponent is going to react to whatever it is that you do. Here's how it works:
You've got a draw, and you're about to decide whether it's correct to continue with it. We use pot odds to determine this. For example, you're on turn with a flush draw. You hit 19.6% of the time, and when you hit, you expect your opponent to continue with betting (or expect him to call your bet, depending on whether you bet or called on turn) on river, no matter what happens. You'll risk no additional bets in case you don't hit, since you just fold if when he bets. You've got a $400 stack on the table, and your opponent's got your stack covered.
He bets $60 to a $100 pot, and obviously no pot odds wouldn't justify this call since $60 (his bet) + $60 (your bet) + $100 (pot) = $220. Meaning you're to risk $60 and when we calculate the pot odds for that, 60/220 = 27.2% when it should be under 19.6% to justify the call. IF we worked this out by looking at pot odds only, we should fold rightaway.
So, what if we plan ahead. Like said before, if you hit, you'll expect him to bet, and then you'll raise him all-in since we definitely think you've got the best hand. Other option is that you'll bet and he calls. Let's go through both of them.
Scenario A
Implied Odds - He did bet $60 to a $100 pot (on turn) which means he made a bet in the size of 60% of the pot. OK. Now, we could expect him to make same size of a bet relative to the size of the pot, meaning 60% of the pot. 0.6*$220 = $132. The fact that we "know" this helps us in a bit more advanced calculations (that I'm going to go through in other articles). In this example he bets whatever amount, and when you raise his bet, he goes all-in (you double up, basically). This happens only if you hit, of course. In case you don't hit, he takes down the pot on the river (you fold).
We don't really even have to go through any poker calculations because it's crystal clear that we're going to play profitably when we look at it in implied odds. I think I should prove the point anyway:
OP (Original Pot) = $100
TB (Turn Bet) = $60
TC (Turn Call) = $60
RB (River Bet) = $290
RC (River Call) = $290
We get our implied odds from TC/OP + TB + TC + RB = 60/510 = 0.118 = 11.8%.
Explanation: Since our stack was $400 and we had already put $50 to the OP, then we called the TB and there was $290 left which we got into the pot on the river. Now, implied odds come from making pot sizes bigger, and since we know that our opponent's willing to go all-in on the river, we just add the remaining $290 to the pot which consisted of OP + TB + TC (=$220) before the river. Remember, 60/220 would mean losing since we're on a flush draw, but because of implied odds, we planned ahead and basically made the pot $290 bigger. It became easily profitable.
Scenario B
Implied Odds - When you bet $60 to your opponent, pot being $100 and you've got a flush draw, pot odds aren't on your side. Since we're going to want to make money, we'll have to bet $60 to at least $247 pot. This means we're going to have to make the pot bigger. So, now we think if we can extract more money out of our opponent on the river. We decide that he'll call our 60% of the pot continuation bet on the river, no matter what. If we miss our outs, we check and he takes the pot, causing us a loss of $60.
Now, there's a $100 pot and we bet $60 into it, getting a $60 from his call, but our improvements must come from river, so we get $132 to the pot by betting. This isn't enough yet! We still miss on $15 of bets in order to make it profitable. Remember, the amount we risk must be under 19.6% of the pot. Instead of $132, we bet $150 to the $220 pot and get called, now this play is profitable when looking at implied odds, since:
$60 bet to $310 pot ($100 in the original pot + opponent's $60 turn call + opponent's $150 river call). 60/310 = 0.194 = 19.4%
It's also good to remember that "implied odds are just odds", meaning you definitely should rely on them in a lot of cases, but they don't hold all the answers in poker. It's a people vs. people game, however, it's all going to come down to math. But, you don't necessarily have to be able to put it all on a paper (how are you going to put timing tells on a paper, although you can make calculations based on how many times a certain timing tell means something vs. it means something else). You'll notice everything in poker is about math, but there are different kinds of ways of dealing with it.
There are also a lot of other questions that require a certain amount of information on your opponent/s. For example, if you know he'll either fold or call when you bet, how many times he's going to fold vs. call. And then there's also the whole manipulating pot odds situation - you can use this concept to manipulate, and make your opponent's pot odds worse when you don't want a call, or better when you do want a call.
Remember, those scenarios above were fixed to a large degree, since we knew for sure how our opponent is going to react. Anyway, I'm sure you got the idea of how to make calculations, and you'll be able to adjust these advices to your own games.
Poker Mathematics:
Poker Probability,
Pot Odds
(Continue: Implied Odds),
Expected Value,
Winnings in the Long Run |
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